Taipei, Jan 23 (IANS) Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) Director John Dotson has warned that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could conduct “more aggressive, ambitious operations around Taiwan,” while preparing for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s goal of the PLA having the capability to take Taiwan by 2027, local media reported on Friday.
A senior non-resident fellow at the GTI, Ann Kowalewski, stated that 2026 is thus the last year for China’s PLA to reach the capability, Taiwan’s daily Taipei Times reported. Dotson and Kowalewski made the remarks during a panel discussion held by GTI in Washington titled ‘Looking Ahead for Taiwan Policy in 2026’.
GTI noted the mounting pressure from China against Taiwan in 2025, including the PLA’s ‘Justice Mission 2025’ military exercises. Analysts have stressed that 2027 could be a flash point in cross-strait ties after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson in 2021 warned that Xi Jinping had told PLA to be prepared for invading Taiwan by 2027.
Kowalewski stated that substantial political analysis reveals that they are “not quite there yet.” She said, “What we might see is a massive ramp-up this year in PRC military capability”, adding that it is not clear whether Taiwan and the US could bolster their military capabilities or think unique postures to ensure they can asymmetrically keep the balance of power in a relatively stable area.
Dotson stated that PLA military exercises conducted in April and December were held towards the south and southeast of Taiwan, in close proximity to Taiwan’s main island, and featured more aggressive use of the China Coast Guard. He stated that deploying the coast guard serves China’s narrative as it can be justified as law enforcement patrols instead of military incursions.
GTI Director stated that China provides a “narrative justification” for military exercises like blaming Taiwanese President William Lai on policies to target Chinese infiltration in March or an arms sales package with the US in December last year, Taipei Times reported. He expressed “skepticism” about these narratives and mentioned that large-scale exercises are planned far before.
Earlier this month, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau accused Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of conducting military drills near the self-ruled island along with cyberattacks, sharing over 19,000 “controversial” messages and carrying out millions of hacking intrusions, local media reported.
In a report presented to the Legislative Yuan, the agency stated that online activity involved 799 abnormal accounts and focused on increasing skepticism regarding the US, Taiwan’s President William Lai and military, referring to concerns about Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, Taiwan’s daily Taipei Times reported.
The bureau stated that the cyberintrusions targetting government networks intensified during the exercises, reaching around 2.08 million attacks on the first day of China’s military exercises and further increased to about 2.09 million on the second day.
In its report, the agency stated that the CCP carried out drills to counter support that Taiwan receives from international democratic allies, divert attention from internal problems and showcase military strength as unaffected by anti-corruption efforts. The NSB alleged that CCP used drills against Taiwan to redirect dissatisfaction of people towards nationalist sentiment portrayed as resistance to external interference.
–IANS
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