Mumbai, Feb 13 (IANS) China’s nationwide primary property sales are expected to fall 10–14 per cent as a persistent glut of completed housing keeps a market recovery out of reach, a new report has said.
The report from S&P Global said the completed primary inventory rose for the sixth year in a row to 766 million square metres by 2025 end, up 1.6 per cent (year-on-year).
Completed inventory at end-2025 was 45 per cent higher than the 10-year average prior to the downturn, the report further said.
The ratings agency highlighted a slow destocking trend, saying completed inventory dipped 4 per cent from a February 2025 peak but warned that without major nationwide policies to tackle excess supply, sales will likely keep falling.
S&P Global flagged that price weakness for primary and secondary homes has spread to tier-one cities in the last quarter of 2025.
“We previously viewed these markets as healthy, and as the likely starting place of any national property recovery,” the report said, adding that Shanghai was the only city that posted a rise in primary property prices.
Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen declined 3.2–5.6 per cent YoY in terms of primary home prices in CY25, the report noted.
The report forecasted primary home prices to likely drop 2-4 per cent in 2026 and secondary home prices to drop 5–8 per cent.
“We assume potential price regulations by local governments would likely prevent big drops in primary home prices,” the report said.
In 2025, secondary home prices fell in all of China’s 70 mid to large cities, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The ratings agency warned that if contracted sales fall another 10 percentage points, four in 10 Chinese developers (excluding China Vanke) could face downward rating pressure. As Chinese banks offload foreclosed properties in select regions, around 7 lakh –1.3 million units were up for sale in 2025, the report said.
“We assume that foreclosed properties could emerge as an additional source of oversupply and may put further downside pressure on home prices,” it flagged.
–IANS
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