Chennai, April 29 (IANS) The latest exit poll conducted by the Centre for Policy and Development Studies points to a fiercely contested Tamil Nadu Assembly election, with the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led bloc locked in a neck-and-neck battle, while actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam emerges as a decisive third force.
Based on responses from a robust sample of 46,000 voters across all 234 constituencies, the Centre for Policy and Development Studies survey indicates that neither of the two Dravidian majors has a clear edge, setting the stage for a potentially dramatic result on counting day.
According to the projections, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led Secular Progressive Alliance is expected to secure 108–118 seats, placing it marginally ahead but still hovering around the majority mark of 118.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance, which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party and its partners, is projected to win 102–112 seats, remaining well within striking distance of power.
The most striking feature of the Centre for Policy and Development Studies exit poll is the strong performance of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, which is projected to win 16–26 seats.
Though not in contention for power, the party’s emergence could play a kingmaker role in a tightly split Assembly, particularly if the final tally falls short of a clear majority for either major alliance.
A key driver behind Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam’s rise is the youth vote, which appears to have fragmented significantly.
The Centre for Policy and Development Studies survey notes that young voters turned out in large numbers and distributed their support almost evenly between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance, and Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.
This three-way split among first-time and young voters has disrupted traditional voting patterns and injected unpredictability into the electoral outcome.
In terms of vote share, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance is projected to secure around 37–38 per cent, closely followed by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance at 35–36 per cent, while Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is estimated to garner a significant 16–18 per cent vote share.
The remaining votes are expected to be split among smaller parties and independents.
Regionally, the contest remains tight across key belts.
While the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance retains an edge in Chennai and northern districts, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance is performing strongly in western and southern regions.
The Kongu belt, in particular, is witnessing a highly competitive triangular fight.
With such narrow margins and a resurgent third force, the Centre for Policy and Development Studies exit poll underscores that Tamil Nadu is heading for one of its closest electoral verdicts in recent history, where even small swings could alter the outcome.
–IANS
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