New Delhi, Jan 20 (IANS) The private large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector, the rise in unemployment and the rise in the average national wage between 2020-21 and 2024-25 in Pakistan challenges the government’s industrial growth data claims, according to a new report.
Anjum Ibrahim writes in Business Recorder that the “government narrative on the state of the economy, not surprisingly, remains extremely upbeat though there are periodic glimpses of a deep-seated concern, given the palpable general public discontent over this claim”.
Islamabad insists that the rise in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is on an upward trajectory. They claim 3.09 per cent GDP growth for 2024-25 and 3.71 per cent estimated in the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year.
However, “the crescendo of complaints by the LSM private sector has raised legitimate concerns about the accuracy of the data”.
Some of these complaints are electricity cross subsidy paid for by industry raises input costs making exports uncompetitive (a claim supported by a decline in exports) and incentivising smuggling across hundreds of miles of our porous borders
“The proactive audit of industrial units – touted as enforcement – is limited to sales tax and particularly to sugar, cement and now fertilizer sub-sectors which is an indirect tax passed onto the consumers whose incidence on the poor is greater than on the rich,” the article says.
According to the report, All Pakistan Textile Mills Association claims that 150 units have closed down during the past year and a half as a consequence of these flawed decisions.
Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association revealed that “over 100 spinning units have shut down leading to shortages of yarn and fabric with most of the large scale units that once operated two shifts forced to operate a single shift”.
Moreover, Pakistan Association of Large Steel Producers is now operating at 30 to 50 percent capacity producing 3.8 million tonnes per year against the installed capacity of 9 million tonnes, says the report.
“Cement dispatches fell by 3.47 per cent in November 2025 year-on-year to 4.14 million tons though total dispatches rose by 11.54 per cent during the first five months of the current year,” the article states.
Data of the number of closures accounts for Pakistan’s industrial sector’s challenge to government claim of a 6.01 percent LSM growth July-November 2025, it added.
Pakistan’s unemployment rate has risen to 7.09 per cent to nearly 8 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent in LFS 2020-21 across all age groups.
This increase was observed both in case of males (5.5 per cent in LFS 2020-21 to 5.9 in the 2024-25 LFS) and females (8.9 per cent to 9.7 per cent).
Moreover, the share of formal sector in employment is a mere 27.5 per cent in 2024-25 LFS, a disturbing claim, against 27.6 per cent in LFS 2020-21 (males accounting for 26.6 percent and females 73.4 percent females in LFS 2020-21 against 27.3 percent males and 72.5 percent females in LFS 2024-25).
“The purchasing power of each rupee earned each year is best reflected by the rate of inflation: in 2020-21 inflation was estimated at a low of 8.9 percent however next year it rose to a high of 29.18 percent and in 2023-24 it was 23.41 percent,” the report mentioned.
–IANS
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