New Delhi, Dec 30 (IANS) The death of Bangladesh’s First Lady Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia, comes at a time when the country is gearing up for a very crucial election on February 12. Zia (80) died this morning after a prolonged illness. She was on life support for the last couple of weeks and breathed her last at 6 a.m. on December 30.
While Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has been on course to win the elections, experts say the chances now are that it will get a larger number of seats. A sympathy wave would surely be a factor during the elections, and this is bound to help the BNP considerably, experts say.
Bangladesh watchers say that owing to health reasons, Zia has been out of the mainstream for quite some time. While the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami were together during the events that led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, the two parted ways afterwards. Despite being coalition partners when the BNP ruled the nation, this time both parties decided to go solo in the upcoming elections.
Another event that bolstered the BNP’s chances was the return of Tarique Rahman, the son of the late Khaleda Zia. He drew an impressive crowd, and the fact that he returned to Bangladesh has infused fresh life into the cadres of the BNP, experts also say.
Experts feel that Rahman, who filed his nomination papers from two constituencies, is the frontrunner to be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh. When he returned from London after a 17-year exile, it became clear that he would play a big role in Bangladesh politics.
Recent opinion polls have shown that the BNP is ahead of the Jamaat and the newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP). However, these polls also indicated that the Jamaat was not far behind the BNP. The NCP, which was a distant third, is expected to be pushed down further owing to the multiple splits within the party.
Zia’s death is expected to change much of the situation, as the BNP would clearly ride on the sympathy wave. The outpouring of grief across the country following her death only shows that she remained a popular leader in the country.
Since Bangladesh plunged into crisis after Sheikh Hasina fled the country, India has been reaching out to the BNP leadership. Both sides have agreed to have cordial ties and share a workable relationship. This, however, has not gone down too well with the ISI, which has been rooting for the Jamaat, which it controls.
Officials say that the BNP, although it has had an anti-India stance, is a workable partner when compared to the Jamaat. The BNP has been anti-India, while in power, but unlike the Jamaat, it has not made any open call to hurt India. Rahman, who is likely to be the next PM, has in the past been accused of being pro-ISI. However, analysts say that there are signs of change, and he too feels that India and Bangladesh should share a workable relationship.
Intelligence Bureau officials say that the fast-changing situation in Bangladesh has made the ISI go into overdrive mode. It has been reaching out to the BNP leadership as it seeks to control the party. The ISI fears that the BNP may not be as easy to manoeuvre when compared to the Jamaat.
Intelligence agencies have learnt that the ISI has been trying to pump money into the BNP so that it shares similar ties with Pakistan, like the Jamaat. Officials say that the legacy of Khaleda Zia would be used heavily by the BNP during the election campaign. There is no doubt that her death would benefit the BNP hugely, and this is why the ISI feels that the chances of the Jamaat being in power are gradually vanishing.
Indian agencies are keeping a close watch on the activities within the Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka. The ISI cell within the commission has been meddling in the electoral space of the country and is trying to control the results. It has now realised that there is a dire need to get the BNP on its side so that any outreach by New Delhi could be blocked.
Experts say that a lot would depend on Rahman. He has indicated that he wants good ties with India, but that again depends on whether or not the ISI can break him. If he is sensible and wants the country to progress, then the best bet for him is to have a workable relationship with India, experts also say.
Officials, however, add that what Rahman would do is hard to tell. On his arrival, he first dialled Muhammad Yunus and thanked him for facilitating his return. His next event is something that would require careful analysis. He visited the site when student leader, Sharif Osman Hadi, was buried and paid homage. Hadi was an open India hater and called for the destruction of the country. He has also blamed India for every problem that Bangladesh has been facing.
–IANS
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